QUA307: Business Forecasting

Course Objectives:

• Understanding forecasting methods for business, economics, social and administrative phenomena.
• Assist in interpretation of current and future behavior for decision-making and policy making based on sound statistical tools.
• Explain the consequences to the Management based on the data analysis.

Content of the Course and Session Plan:

Session	Content
Sessions 1-4	Introduction to forecasting – its importance, usage and problems.
Sessions 5-12	Simple linear regression. Applications using SPSS/Excel  softwares.
Sessions 13-21	Multiple linear regression. Applications using SPSS/Excel  softwares.
	First Midterm (25 points)
Sessions 22-29	Forecasting methods : Moving Averages. Applications using SPSS/Excel  softwares.
Sessions 30-36	Exponential Smoothing Methods. Applications using SPSS/Excel  softwares.
	Second Midterm (25 points)
Sessions 37-42	Autocorrelation. ARMA, ARIMA models.
	Participation and duties (10 points)
	Final Exam (40 points)

 
Text Books Recommended:

1. Lind, Marchal and Wathen, Statistical Techniques in Business and Economics, McGraw Hill International, Fourteenth Edition.
2. John E. Hanke and Dean W. Wichern, Business Forecasting, Pearson International, Ninth Edition.