The Rapid Growth of OPEC’s Domestic Oil Consumption

Journal Article

, Dermot Gately , Nourah Al-Yousef ,, Hamad M.H. Al-Sheikh . 2013

• نوع عمل المنشور: بحث
• رابط المنشور على الويب: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513006873
• المجلة \ الصحيفة: Energy Policy
• رقم العدد: نوفمبر
• رقم الإصدار السنوي: 62
• الصفحات: 844-859

مستخلص المنشور

OPEC′s domestic oil  consumption has increased seven-fold in  40  years, to 8.5  million barrels per day (mbd). They consume almost as much oil as China. This  constitutes one-fourth of their production. Such rapid growth in  consumption (5.1%  annually, faster than their income growth of  3.1%)  will  challenge OPEC′s ability to increase their oil  exports, which are relied upon in  long-term world oil  projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Department of Energy (DOE/EIA)  and British Petroleum (BP). However, these institutions assume unprecedented slowdowns in  OPEC oil  consumption – to less  than
2% in  the future – allowing them to project increases in OPEC oil exports with only modest increases in production.  We   analyze 1971–2010  data  econometrically,  with  panel  co-integration  methods.  We estimate that  the income elasticity of  consumption is  about 1  for  energy and oil.  This   means that OPEC′s energy and oil consumption will  grow as rapidly as  their income. Hence, continued high growth rates for domestic oil consumption are more likely than the unprecedented slowdowns projected by IEA, DOE/EIA and BP – adding an extra 6 mbd of OPEC consumption in 2030. This will  have major implications
for  OPEC production and export levels, and for  world oil  prices